What the National Cyber Threat Assessment 2025-2026 Reveals About Canada’s Cyber Future
Table of Contents
- Why the National Cyber Threat Assessment 2025–2026 Matters
- Cybersecurity Threats Canada 2025–2026: Insights from the National Cyber Threat Assessment
- New Threat Vectors: AI, Vendor Lock-In, and Digital Chokepoints
- Generative AI Is Fueling More Convincing, Scalable Cyber Attacks
- Vendor Concentration Increases the Impact of Breaches
- Dual-Use Commercial Services Are a Double-Edged Sword
- Evolving Tradecraft: How Cyber Actors Are Evading Detection
- Geopolitically Motivated Non-State Actors: The Rise of Unpredictable Threats
Why the National Cyber Threat Assessment 2025–2026 Matters
What happens when your business becomes collateral damage in a global cyber conflict?
According to the National Cyber Threat Assessment 2025–2026, threats facing Canada are much more volatile, unpredictable, and sophisticated than ever before. Cybercriminals are scaling operations using malware-as-a-service kits, while state-sponsored actors are quietly embedding themselves within private and public networks across Canada and its allies. Lastly, you will find somewhere in between are opportunistic hacktivists, phishing bots, and deepfake-fuelled disinformation campaigns.
Read this blog post to uncover the implications of the latest National Cyber Threat Assessment and what it all means for your organization’s cybersecurity posture.
Cybersecurity Threats Canada 2025–2026: Insights from the National Cyber Threat Assessment
The National Cyber Threat Assessment, published by Canada’s Cyber Centre, touches on three dominant threats:
- State-sponsored cyber activity
- Cybercrime and ransomware
- Emerging risks driven by new technology and digital ecosystems
Let’s explore the forces shaping our risk landscape.
State-Sponsored Espionage and Disruption Are Escalating
As tensions rise between global powers, cyber operations have become a mission-critical aspect of modern-day geopolitics. Canada’s digital infrastructure and intellectual properties make it an appealing target for espionage and positioning by adversaries before a potential conflict.
According to the latest assessment:
- The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has the most sophisticated and wide-reaching state cyber program, targeting Canadian businesses, institutions, and diaspora communities.
- Russia continues to focus on destabilization, disinformation, and targeting of critical infrastructure and government.
- Iran and North Korea remain aggressive and disruptive, especially toward political activists and opposition figures.
- India is developing capabilities focused on espionage, especially targeting critics abroad.
Tactics range from covert surveillance and intellectual property theft to disinformation and pre-positioning in critical infrastructure systems.
“Certain foreign states – including the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Russia, Iran, and North Korea – are conducting wide-ranging and long-term campaigns to compromise government and private sector computer systems. These states obtain information that can be used to interfere with our political systems and our critical infrastructure, and can be used to threaten or harm people in Canada.”- Public Safety Canada
Want to detect early signs of state-aligned activity in your systems? DNSnetworks offers advanced threat detection and response services tailored for Canadian infrastructure and institutions.
Ransomware Is the Most Disruptive Cybercrime Facing Canadian Infrastructure
From hospitals and municipal networks to entire school systems, threat actors are now targeting sectors where downtime hurts the most. The National Cyber Threat Assessment outlines how this tactic has matured into a profitable business model.
Here’s what the report reveals:
- Ransomware attacks are escalating. 2023 was a record-breaking year, and 2024 is on track to exceed it (Cyber Centre).
- Critical infrastructure is a primary target. Healthcare systems, school boards, utilities, and municipalities have all been hit.
- Average ransom payouts in Canada reached $1.13 million in 2023 (NEWSWIRE)
Tactics are evolving:
- Multi-extortion: Encrypt, steal, then leak
- Countdown clocks for data exposure
- Targeting supply chains and third-party software vulnerabilities (e.g. MOVEit, GoAnywhere)
Ransomware-as-a-Service (RaaS) has become a major threat multiplier, empowering even low-skill criminals with access to the most advanced ransomware tools.
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Cybercrime-as-a-Service Has Created a Scalable, Profitable Ecosystem
Behind many cyberattacks is not just a lone hacker, but an ecosystem of criminals offering services for hire. This dark web market means attacks can be scaled faster and further, often leaving small organizations vulnerable to large-scale tools.
The Cybercrime-as-a-Service (CaaS) model is powering much of today’s digital threat economy. It includes:
- Phishing-as-a-Service offers templates, hosting, and tracking dashboards
- Access-as-a-Service lets criminals buy entry into already-compromised systems
- Exploits-as-a-Service rents out vulnerabilities with instructions
This means:
- Entry costs are lower than ever for cybercriminals
- Attack volume is rising across sectors
- Victimization is increasingly indiscriminate
CaaS has also made it harder for law enforcement to disrupt cybercrime infrastructure. When one group is shut down, another emerges with rebranded tools and services (Cyber Centre).
Stay Ahead of CaaS Threats with Proactive Cyber Defences
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New Threat Vectors: AI, Vendor Lock-In, and Digital Chokepoints
Technology is constantly changing and so are the ways it can be misused. The National Cyber Threat Assessment warns that Canadian organizations should be aware of five high-impact trends that can complicate cybersecurity for organizations. Here’s what to watch for:
Generative AI Is Fueling More Convincing, Scalable Cyber Attacks
AI is being used to:
- Auto-generate phishing emails with human-like tone
- Create fake videos, voices, and documents
- Personalize fraud based on scraped data
Deepfake-driven attacks aren’t just a future concern. They’re already targeting executives, financial institutions, and political actors.
Vendor Concentration Increases the Impact of Breaches
Three cloud providers (Amazon AWS, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud) now control over 65% of the global market. The risk?
- A single breach can impact thousands of organizations
- Supply chain attacks (like SolarWinds or Kaseya) now have cascading effects
In Canada, overreliance on centralized cloud platforms could magnify any successful exploit.
Dual-Use Commercial Services Are a Double-Edged Sword
Tools used for both civilian and military purposes (e.g. Starlink, cloud analytics platforms) are now potential wartime targets.
This means:
- A service outage may not be accidental
- Your vendor may be under attack due to political factors
The takeaway: even non-sensitive businesses need a continuity plan if reliant on high-profile vendors.
Evolving Tradecraft: How Cyber Actors Are Evading Detection
Modern threat actors are abandoning traditional malware attacks in favour of stealthier techniques. Tactics like “living off the land (LOTL),” abuse of legitimate admin tools, and fileless malware attacks are growing more common, making detection increasingly difficult.
Attackers now:
- Hide within authorized software (e.g. PowerShell, WMI)
- Target identity and access rather than endpoints
- Move laterally within networks before executing payloads
The assessment warns that as detection tools improve, attackers will continue refining their ability to blend in.
Geopolitically Motivated Non-State Actors: The Rise of Unpredictable Threats
Not every adversary is a government. The rise of non-state actors such as ideologically motivated hacktivists or cyber mercenaries adds unpredictability to Canada’s cyber threat landscape.
These actors:
- Are driven by political or ideological agendas
- Operate outside formal intelligence chains
- May align with or be tolerated by foreign governments
Unlike state-backed actors, these groups don’t always follow rational or strategic logic. That makes them harder to anticipate and disrupt.
This means:
- A service outage may not be accidental
- Your vendor may be under attack due to political factors
The takeaway: even non-sensitive businesses need a continuity plan if reliant on high-profile vendors.
So what do you do next?
Work with DNSnetworks to review your third-party dependencies and build resilience into your IT stack.
What the National Cyber Threat Assessment Means for Canadian Businesses
It’s tempting to assume that only large corporations or government departments are in the crosshairs. But the reality is that cyber risk affects every organization connected to the internet. The latest national assessment offers insights that Canadian businesses of all sizes can use to improve their cyber resilience.
This Is Not Just a Government Problem
If you’re an SMB, non-profit, educational institution, or healthcare provider, you’re likely more exposed than you think.
Threat actors don’t care about your size or mission. They care about:
- Whether you have valuable data
- Whether you’re likely to pay a ransom
- Whether you’re connected to someone more valuable
Risk Visibility and Threat Intelligence Are Now Essential
Key steps you should already be taking:
- Real-time monitoring of endpoints and networks
- Threat detection powered by behavioural analytics
- Regular review of incident response readiness
DNSnetworks helps organizations map cyber risks against national intelligence insights and act before attackers do. Find out more.
Collaboration Is the New Baseline for Cyber Resilience
The government is investing more than $900M in national cybersecurity upgrades (Budget 2024). But individual organizations must step up too.
Start by:
- Participating in information-sharing frameworks
- Building alliances with IT service providers and MSSPs
- Training staff on phishing, credential theft, and incident reporting
Looking for guidance or direction for your cybersecurity strategy? Partner with DNSnetworks to stay informed, adaptive, and ready to respond with expert-led security guidance.
Final Thoughts: Stay Ahead of Evolving Threats
You can’t stop global hackers, but you can stop them from making you their next win. Use this insight, act now, and stay sharp. DNSnetworks is here to make that easier.
Cyber threats in Canada are growing, but so is our capacity to respond. Use the National Cyber Threat Assessment as your blueprint for action. Need help mapping your next move? Talk to DNSnetworks.